Sep 24: VN Index Closes Day and Week Down on High CPI Data

Vietnamese stocks continued to close down today as local investors cut stock holding on concerns over hiking inflation in the rest months of the year.

The benchmark VN Index lost 1.06 points or 0.23% to 449.71. Volume plunged to 34.9 million shares traded for VND888.44 billion compared with 52.2 million shares traded for VND1.43 trillion on Thursday.

The drop in volume indicated that both buyers and sellers were cautious on the last trading session of the week.

This week, VN Index lost 7.87 points or 1.72% with an average daily trading volume of 46.7 million shares.

The Government Statistic Office announced late this morning that Vietnam September CPI rose 1.31%, the highest level in 6 months this year and highest September CPI in 15 years, driven by a combined force of three factors: demand pull, imported inflation, and policy changes, raising concerns over continued steaming inflation in the coming months.

This September CPI was two times as high as common expectation of 0.7% and still higher than the highest expectation of 1.25% by NHDMoney few days ago.

In an alternative investment option, local gold prices continued to climb to fresh new highs as world gold prices are moving towards all-time-high level of $1,300 an ounce. It is expected that gold profit takers would soon switch their funds to fairly attractive equities.

The market opened in the red with caution in place weighed by global markets’ losses last night, trading volume continued to fall to 0.78 million shares. The market went on slowly with some efforts to recover and protect 450. The market moved in and out of the positive ground for several times before settling down at the close. Though the market was off the low, the sentiment was weak.

Market breath was positive where gainers outpaced losers by 104 to 90 and 69 unchanged stocks. As many as 6 stocks hit the upper daily limits of 5% while 7 others fell to the floor of -5%.

OGC was the most active stock with 2.55 million shares traded, closing lower at VND33, 400, down 2.34%.

ITA ranked second in the list with 2.27 million shares traded, sliding 1.66% to VND24,100.

STB was in the third place with 1.40 million shares traded, stayed unchanged at VND16,000.

DRH and DTL followed with 1.39 million shares and 1.21 million shares traded, respectively.

Today foreign players switched to net sell of VND20.85 billion of Vietnamese shares today after net buying for the 16 straight days. They purchased 1,537,430 shares for VND65.53 billion and sold 3,449,160 shares for VND86.38 billion accounting for 7.38% buying value and 9.72% selling value.

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX extended losses for the fourth day as investors were cautious to buy shares. The index level still failed to test 130 threshold. The HNX lost 0.20 points or 0.15% to 129.63.

Today volume and value fell to 27.07 million shares traded for VND641 million compared with 36.71 million shares traded for VND879 million on September 23.

The market recorded 167 gainers, 102 losers and 69 unchanged stocks including 14 ceiling gainers and 11 floor losers. On this bourse, daily trading limit is capped at 7% each side.

PVX was the most active stocks on the bourse with 2.93 million shares traded, gaining 1.29% to VND23,500.

KLS ranked second in the list with 1.73 million shares traded, adding 0.65% to VND15,500.

VND was in the third place with 1.04 million shares traded, rising 0.45% to VND22,300.

Foreigners kept net buying of VND4.67 billion of Vietnamese shares on the HNX today.

Vietnam CPI Surges 1.31% in Sept, Highest in 6 Months: GSO

Vietnam consumer price index in September is estimated to have increased by 1.31% from August driven by a combined force of three factors: demand pull, imported inflation, and policy changes, the local newswire NDHMoney reported Sept 24 citing the General Statistics Office.

September increase led the figure to have risen by 6.46% in the first nine months of the year and 8.92% from the same period last year, the highest September levels since 1995, the NDHMoney noted. The figures are based on data for the first 23 days of the month.

On average, CPI in the first nine months of this year was up 8.64% from that of last year.

As many as 10 out of the 11 baskets of goods contributed to the calculation of the CPI data saw their prices rise in September. Only costs of post and telecom services decreased by 0.07%, the GSO said.

Demand-pull inflation pressure was obvious in September. The highest percentage price increase was seen in education, up 12.02% from August as new school year begins with up-ward adjustments in tuition fees from 30-200% at all levels.

House and construction materials saw the second biggest increase of 1.08% due to higher prices of steel and cement, partly due to higher imported steel ingot.

With the highest weight in the CPI basket. The prices of food and food stuffs rose 2.32% and 0.39% respectively from last month on 20% higher rice prices in the first 15 days of September over the same period in August while food and restaurants service costs rose by 0.49%.

Prices of other CPI components rose from 0.34% upwards.

The policy move of devaluating the Vietnamese dong by 2.09% effective from August 18 also led to higher imported inflation as prices of imported goods rose.

Gold prices in August rose by 3.58% on-month as a result of global price rise while the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose by 1.61% on-month after the SBV move.

CPI in the two biggest cities in Vietnam was also highest in 6 months, Ho Chi Minh City posted 0.97% CPI increase while Hanoi saw it rose by 0.96%.

Analysts earlier forecast Vietnam’s CPI has bottomed in July with 0.06% increase on month and expected September CPI to come out at 0.5%, much lower than the actual rate.

Analysts expect the Southeast Asian country’s CPI to quicken in the last months of the year on the seasonal factors as year-end is peak shopping seasons and on forex concerns.

Vietnam targets to curb inflation at 8% this year and the government of Vietnam has taken a number of measures to tame inflation and hold down prices.

Analysts said curbing inflation at single-digital this year would be a success for Vietnam.

Hanoi GDP likely Up 10.6% in Jan-Sept

Gross domestic product (GDP) Hanoi, the capital city, is estimated to have expanded 10.6% in the first nine months of this year, beating the full-year target of between 9% and 9.5%.

Service sector posted the highest growth of 10.5% while industrial and agricultural sectors grew at the same rate of 5.6% in the period, the Hanoi Statistics Office said.

In Jan-Sept, Hanoi posted a budget surplus of VND48.44 trillion after collecting VND70.054 trillion tax revenues and spending VND21.61 trillion.

Of the expenses, total investments were VND9.91 trillion, fulfilling 59.8% of the full-year estimate.

In 2009, Hanoi’s GDP expanded 6.67% from a year earlier. (ndhmoney.vn Sept 22

Sept 24 Market Tips: Fighting To Continue

The local markets lost ground yesterday but the positive things are that we were off the lows and trading turnover improved. The threshold 450 now becomes sensitive and the fighting at this point is expected.

Sai Gon Securities (SSI): Market Likely to Test 448-451 Again

SSI thinks the market is likely to retest 448-451 once more today. If the demand increases significantly, we can hope for more positive market next week. The broker advises investors to consider buying into the dips.

Thang Long Securities (TLS): No Positive Signals Seen

TLS says “Positive signals for the market have not been seen in our technical models”, recommending “institutional investors can consider buying while daily investors should hold their positions.”

Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HSC): Medium To Long Term Investors Can Safely Buy

HSC says “Our market view is unchanged and we think medium to long term investors can safely buy at current levels. We would argue that once we get into October, the C13 story will be behind us and we also expect that October CPI will show a reversion to a more gradual acceleration in inflation. Therefore the market may well move somewhat higher. But at the same time we are also coming into the peak season for the issuance of new market share supply so any upside is firmly capped in our view.”

SBS Securities (SBS): Focus on Fundamental

SBS points out that 30% of the stocks still buck the market downtrend, recommending investors to cash in moderately, focusing on fundamentals rather than hot stocks. For medium to long term, the broker is still bearish.

Au Viet Securities (AVS): Further Sideways Trending Down

AVS thinks the market will continue to move sideways in the coming sessions and the market trend will be clearer after the news on Sept CPI and Circular 13 comes out.

VNDirect (VND): Either Way from 450

VND thinks the market will move either way from the sensitive point 450. The negative news of increasing USD interest rates and tension on CAR improvement are major concerns.